Rather then write the code I should be writing right now I am gonna comment on an article on ESPN by Rob Neyer. Here is the link to the article so you all can read it if you want.
I read this and thought through out most of it, "What in the hell is this guy smoking when he is writing?" Lets start first with the list header, "... you're not going to find any "prospects" on this list. Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus may be great baseball players but they've not played an inning in the majors...". Granted that is very true and I would agree, but then wtf is Evan Longoria doing on this list, at number 20 more less. Above the likes of Nick Markakis(23-112-.300), Jake Peavy(19-240-2.54), Carl Crawford(11-80-50-.315), Adrian Gonzalez(30-100-.282), and a few others. Completely ludicrous. I mean this kid has ZERO at bats in the majors. If your going to include Longoria you have to include Jay Bruce, because Bruce has better minor league numbers, and is younger by about 2 years.
My next big beef with this article is that he has Jose Reyes below Ryan Zimmerman, umm what? Reyes is clearly the better player. First off lets look at Zimmermans stats for 2006 and 2007:
G AB R H HR RBI BB K SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
06 157 614 84 176 20 110 61 120 11 .287 .351 .471 .822
07 162 653 99 174 24 91 61 125 4 .266 .330 .458 .788
He clearly went backwards in 2007, and whats to say he wont continue that trend in 2008? Granted he could get better, but he is not going to be better then Reyes. The argument that Neyer gives is that Reyes is a year or so older and has a OPS(.775) below the league average. He fails to notice that Reyes led the league in steals(78), 7th in runs(119), and 3rd in triples(12). What categories did Zimmerman make the top 10 in? NONE! So it would be nice if some one would explain how Zimmerman is a better player then Reyes, because the numbers say he isn't.
I could go on forever with this horrible list, but won't. I just hope that next time Neyer gives the high school intern an article to write for him I hope he at least proof reads it.
Weekend.....at Bernies?
14 years ago
3 comments:
Well Done
I commented on this once, and it somehow didn't show up, so here's a condensed rewrite of that comment.
You have two points - (1) Evan Longoria is a prospect, and he said there would be no prospects and (2) Reyes should be above Zimmerman.
You pulled a nice Fox News trick for (1). The actual quote in the "list header" is 'With one exception, you're not going to find any "prospects" on this list. (emphasis added). Reads quite a bit different than the quote you had. Also, the list is not who is a better player *now*, or who will have the best overall career, it's who is the best to have on your MLB roster for the next five years. Once Longoria's spent enough time at AAA to extend his contract-under-team-control time, he'll be in TB and have the 3B spot locked in. Bruce might be a better hitter, but Longoria has a better glove, and will be a significant contributor starting this year, and age for the two of them is irrelevant.
As for (2), when you noted that Zimmerman's stats went down from 2006 to 2007, you conveniently forgot to note that in 2007, Reyes had more ABs, but fewer runs, hits, triples, homeruns (by like 40%), RBI (by 30%), and total bases as compared to 2006. He also slugged 66 points lower, and his batting average dipped 20 points. Don't get me wrong, he's still a great player (2nd best shortstop in NY, behind A-Rod), and all of the stats you cited back that up, but his trends are no better than Zimmerman's. And again, if you read the headline of the article, it's not the top 50 of the past 2 years, it's the top 50 for the next 5. Also, Neyer doesn't make a direct comparison in their ages, he just said that at 25, it would be nice if Reyes had at least an *average* OPS.
The simple fact that Neyer says at the top of the article, "..may be great baseball players but they've not played an inning in the majors, and even once they reach the majors they might need a year or two or three to become great major leaguers. Which disqualifies them from making our five-year list." Then puts Longoria on the list makes him an ignoramus. There shouldn't be a single exception at all. Whats his logic behind including Longoria? Bruce has superior offensive numbers through out the minors. But wait you say, Longoria has a better glove, does he?
According to the stats over at baseball-reference.com Bruce has a higher fielding % (.973 vs. .963). Clearly Bruce beats him here.
The next stat to compare is their range factor, Bruce's 2.19 to Longoria's 2.65. Since they both play different positions, and range factor differs between all positions this is less relevant stat, better used for comparing two players at the same position.
Also infielders tend to have higher range factors then outfielders, because they have more putouts.
Either way, you cannot say outright that Longoria has a better glove. He clearly has less of a bat by the stats. So why is he on that list? Oh yea because Neyer is an ignoramus.
Also Bruce will play this year in Cincy, its just a waiting game for Griffy or Freel to get hurt.
With respect to Reyes vs Zimmerman you mostly right, Reyes stats also slipped slightly.
Granted it would be nice for Reyes to post a better OPS, but quite frankly for a player like Reyes I don't care about the slugging percentage part of that number. Reyes doesn't need to hit a double to get to second. So him not posting an average OPS is mostly relevant, because his game requires a good OBP so he can steal 78 bags again.
Zimmerman is the guy the Nationals pay to knock in runs, and he had 19 less RBI last season, and a 34 point drop in his OPS.
So if Neyer wants to comment on Reyes less then average OPS at .775 why not comment on Zimmermans .788? Its a whole 13 points better. So it looks like Zimmerman wasn't much better then average either, if at all.
So if you want Zimmerman for the next five years, have at it. You should come join our keeper league we need a guy like you. Me I will keep Reyes.
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